In January 2025, the Palisades and Eaton Fires tore through Los Angeles County, destroying thousands of structures and leaving behind billions of dollars in damage. What made these fires extraordinary was not only their scale but also their timing: they struck in the middle of winter, a season historically considered low-risk.
At Descartes Underwriting, our research team set out to answer a critical question: how can we better understand and quantify wildfire risk when the seasons themselves are shifting?
Why this research matters
Understanding how and why winter wildfires occur is now essential for:
- Scientists advancing climate and fire modelling.
- Insurers quantifying risk and structuring appropriate coverage.
- Risk managers preparing communities and businesses for events outside the expected fire season.
Traditional statistical approaches are limited by the scarcity of historical examples of severe winter wildfires. To address this gap, our research leverages numerical simulations that integrate:
- Physics-based fire spread models
- Detailed climate, vegetation, and anthropogenic data
- High-performance computing resources
The study
This work was conducted by Victor Bouvier, Kevin Dedieu, and Daniel Lyons from Descartes Underwriting, in collaboration with Raphaël Raynaud of Université Paris Cité, Université Paris-Saclay, CEA, and CNRS. Their combined expertise in climate modelling, insurance risk, and high-performance computing provides a unique vantage point for examining wildfire risk in California.
The study demonstrates how simulations can complement limited historical data to provide deeper insights into emerging risks, particularly destructive winter fires.
Key insights for science and practice
- Models capture the contribution of low-season wildfire, providing a better understanding of their drivers.
- Models enhance foresight: When validated against historical data, numerical models provide critical tools for anticipating rare but high-impact events.
- Implications for practice: These findings support more effective prevention, suppression, and insurance strategies in a changing climate.
For brokers and risk managers, the results underscore the need to account for wildfire exposure year-round when designing prevention strategies, pricing risk, and structuring insurance solutions.
Bridging climate science and insurance practice
Climate risks are evolving faster than ever. Anticipating them requires rigorous science, innovative modelling, and the willingness to rethink how risk is understood and managed.
At Descartes Underwriting, this mindset drives everything we do. As a global parametric insurance specialist, we invest deeply in research. Our teams bring together physics-based models, climate science, and high-performance computing to confront some of the most complex and emerging risks of our time—from wildfires and floods to cyclones, hail, and beyond.
Our mission is to close the protection gap by turning cutting-edge science into practical insurance solutions. By building models grounded in the physical realities of a changing planet, we help insurers, brokers, and risk managers act with foresight—safeguarding businesses, communities, and lives when it matters most.
